Nolan Arenado Smoked Two More Homers Last Night, Is On An MVP Pace Once Again
Last year, Nolan Arenado hit .294 with a .932 OPS and led the National League with 41 home runs, 133 RBI, and 352 total bases in 160 games. Tremendous value, considering he did all of that while being the best defensive third baseman in the game, in my opinion and in the opinion of most baseball fans with functioning eyeballs. No offense to Blind Mike.
I found his fifth place finish for the National League MVP award to be quite puzzling. Not that I thought he should’ve won the award — Kris Bryant was the right choice — but I was surprised to see guys like Daniel Murphy, Corey Seager, and Anthony Rizzo finishing ahead of him. Now, that brings us to the question of why. Why did they finish ahead of Arenado? Well, based on history, I would’ve opined that it was because the Rockies finished with a losing record, 16 games out of first place. Murphy, Seager and Rizzo were all on playoff teams.
Historically, not being on a playoff team has hurt potential MVP candidates, despite how great their season was. Except for the fact that Mike Trout won his second MVP award last year while playing for a last place Angels team. That’s why I’m confused. If playoffs don’t matter for the AL MVP award, then how do you explain Arenado finishing fifth for the NL MVP award? Trout was on another planet with a 10.5 WAR last year, and Bryant led the way in the National League with a 7.7 WAR. But guess who was next in line after Bryant? It was Arenado (6.6 WAR).
I’m trying to build an argument for why Arenado should’ve finished higher in the NL MVP voting, but in doing so, I think I unintentionally just demonstrated how much of a freak Mike Trout is. Anyway, I wanna keep the focus on Arenado here. If the voters didn’t care about the Angels finishing in last place, then why did those other three players finish ahead of Arenado? I have a theory — and it’s a theory that I wrote about last year and got killed for by Rockies fans. I would be willing to bet that Arenado was docked some points for playing half a season at Coors Field and his home/road splits being so drastically different.
At the time that I wrote that blog, which was on August 22, Arenado was 98th in the MLB in road OPS (.757) and fifth in the MLB in home OPS (1.049). That’s a HUGE discrepancy. You know what else I found interesting at that time? Four of the top five players in home OPS on that date in August were all Rockies. David Ortiz was first (1.172), followed by DJ LeMahieu (1.107), Trevor Story (1.086), and Carlos Gonzalez (1.077), then Arenado.
That was all. I wasn’t trying to knock Arenado. I was simply just looking at the numbers and making an honest assessment. If you look at the league leaders in road OPS from last year, you’ll still see names like Trout, Ortiz, Murphy, Bryant and Rizzo all in the top 10 in their respective leagues. The great hitters will hit no matter where you put them. Arenado was still a GOOD hitter on the road last year — .277 with an .832 OPS — but he wasn’t a GREAT hitter like he was at home where he hit .312 with a 1.030 OPS.
Most hitters are going to hit better at home than they do on the road. That’s just how it is. But when the difference is that drastic between your home and road splits, I think that’s what separates the really good players from the great players. I was simply just pointing out that playing half a season at Coors Field was helping his overall numbers, and the MVP voters probably noticed that, too. If the playoff team excuse is out the window, then there’s really no other reason to explain why he wasn’t second or third in MVP voting last year.
Pretty much from the time that I hit publish on that blog, any time that Arenado hit a home run on the road, Rockies fans would tweet me and let me know about it. Seems a little sensitive, since the numbers are right there to back up my point, but hey. That’s why this two-homer game in LA was on my radar! He hit them on the road, and is off to a great start again in 2017, hitting .357 with a 1.205 OPS, 6 home runs, 6 doubles and 11 RBI.
You know what else is great? He’s hitting .412 with a 1.385 OPS on the ROAD to start the year. On the ROAD he’s doing that. Trust me, I want to see this kid climb the ranks and be recognized as the superstar player that he is. I want to see him win multiple MVP awards. But if he’s gonna do that, he’s gotta keep doing what he’s doing right now, and that’s proving that he can mash no matter what ballpark you put him in.